Published on December 12th, 2011 | by David Christie
Image © [caption id="" align="alignleft" width="240" caption="Vladimir Putin - his authoritarian rule in Russia is being challenged by a new wave of protest. Image from the World Economic Forum's photostream"][/caption] Like the wave of revolt which swept across the Arab world at the beginning of this year, the new protests in Russia have taken everyone by surprise.  The corruption in Russia’s political system has been plain to see for a long time, but most of the population seemed to have acquiesced with the authoritarian rule of Vladimir Putin (and that of his close ally Dmitry Medvedev, the current President – though his significance has diminished, now that Putin intends to return to the Presidency).  One reason for this is the traumatic effect of Russia’s flawed experiment with democracy in the 1990s. In the summer of 1991, Boris Yeltsin grew in prestige and influence when he terminated the coup by Communist hard-liners, who had intended to reverse Mikhail Gorbachev’s reform of the Soviet Union.  However, Yeltsin quickly used his new-found influence to acquire more power: he took the initiative in dismantling the Soviet Union, dislodged Gorbachev, and found himself in charge of the newly-created Russian Federation.  His subsequent economic reforms enriched a few wealthy oligarchs, but led to financial misery for the majority of Russians.  He did not implement these policies in a democratic way: when parliamentarians voiced opposition to his plans, he sent in the army to confront them, killing 140 people in the process. This combination of heavy-handed authoritarianism with free market shock therapy has been compared with General Pinochet's military dictatorship in Chile in the 1970s.  But the chaos of the Yeltsin era was still hailed as a new age of democracy, and a result the whole notion of democratic politics became tainted in the eyes of many Russians.  So when the more openly authoritarian Putin emerged as President in 2000, claiming to offer order, stability and strong leadership, many Russians accepted his rule.  Under Putin and his protégé Medvedev (who was described in a US diplomatic cable as playing ‘Robin to Putin’s Batman’), a system of ‘managed democracy’ has developed, in which regular elections take place, but parties deemed by the authorities to be too critical of the government are not allowed to participate.  Opposition activists have also been harassed by the authorities, and some prominent critics of the regime have even been assassinated.  But despite this oppressive atmosphere most of the Russian people have not felt moved to protest. Until now, that is.  The current protests were sparked by evidence of fraud in recent parliamentary elections, in which Putin’s United Russia party won almost 50% of the vote.  This actually represents a drop in the party’s support, but the protesters nevertheless believe that the elections were rigged in United Russia’s favour.  Do the protests represent a serious threat to Putin’s rule?  It is too early to say at the moment, but they certainly represent one of the biggest challenges he has faced so far.  So why have these protests suddenly appeared out of nowhere?  Are they motivated, like the Arab Spring and Occupy Wall Street, by economic uncertainty among young people?  Russia's economic growth has started to lag behind that of the other economically emerging powers, and Russia has a high level of youth unemployment (26.1%, according to this Al Jazeera article), so the economic situation of young people is one of the likely causes. The next stage will depend on how the government reacts.  They have already attempted to diffuse the situation by announcing an investigation into the allegations of electoral fraud, but this is unlikely to calm the anger of the protesters.  The regime will then have to decide whether to make further concessions, or to use repression.  As Putin has never had to deal with protests on this scale before, it is difficult to predict what he will do next.