Where is it all going wrong for the Conservatives?
For many months the inevitability of a Conservative win loomed large over Westminster. The Conservatives consistently had a double digit lead in the polls after December 2008, and all seemed on course for the Conservatives to form their first government in 13 years. But how all that has changed!
An Ipsos poll published last week puts the Conservatives lead over Labour at just 5 points. A similar poll conducted by the Guardian puts the Tory lead at 6 points. How have the Conservatives seen their once unassailable-looking lead in the polls cut to such an extent? A 6 point lead in the polls would only give the Conservatives a 17 seat majority in Parliament.
Predictions of a hung Parliament are beginning to hold more and more weight with Labour resurging in the polls. Even with the gains that Labour have made recently, I still think that a Labour win with a solid majority is a long shot. I think the defining feeling amongst the electorate is one of weariness and anger with Labour. I have felt that this election was less about the Conservatives than Labour’s failings; a case of a vote against Labour, not necessarily a vote for the Conservatives. This suited the Conservatives before, as they in essence didn't have to actually do anything. Everyone’s attention was focused on the government. However, this has changed. With Labour’s focused campaign message of “a fair future for all”, they have delivered a simple and clear message for their campaign. Whereas everything coming from the Conservatives recently is confusing and unclear.
On the matter of policy, the Conservatives have yet to actually make it clear what they are about. In a poll published in the Guardian today, 36% percent of those polled were unsure of what the Conservatives’ message was. The Conservatives just haven't been consistent with their message. For example, there was the confusion surrounding the tax breaks for married couples, and George Osborne’s view on cutting the budget deficit if the Conservatives get into power is at odds with the IMF’s own moderate "wait and recover" policy.
However, I think the single biggest obstacle for the Conservatives to overcome - or for that matter any of the political parties - is the general antipathy and mistrust of government that is felt by the public. The MPs' expenses scandal has cast a large shadow over the public view of Westminster; an example of this would be on the Conservatives’ website where a list of expenses can be found for every Conservative MP. This general feeling of mistrust may also have been exacerbated by Cameron rescinding his promise for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, a misguided move, considering it was always likely to be signed and ratified before the General Election and his promise wouldn't be tested.
Cameron is a charismatic leader of the Conservatives. He has the young fresh appeal that a certain Tony Blair had back in 1997. However, he is going to have to take a long hard look at what his party is trying to say and be much more aggressive in his campaigning against Labour if he wants to be Prime Minister.
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